Event-Aware Multi-Layer Storage Risk Forecasting for Oracle Database Estates Using HAPF
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.5183Keywords:
Oracle database, storage risk forecasting, Oracle ASM, FRA, event-aware forecasting, capacity horizonAbstract
This study formulates storage growth forecasting in Oracle database estates as a cross-layer capacity-horizon problem, where the first effective bottleneck - rather than a single utilization curve - should govern engineering intervention timing. The paper develops an event-aware Holistic Allocation Pattern Forecasting (HAPF) workflow using anonymized daily telemetry from January 2021 to December 2023. The method combines Holt-Winters baseline forecasting, ARIMA consistency checking, event injection for release, purge, migration, and capacity-expansion events, and cross-layer threshold-horizon ranking across tablespace, ASM, FRA, archive, TEMP, and backup-related layers. The proposed approach surfaces Archive/FRA pressure and mirrored-capacity compression earlier than the visually dominant primary tablespace. Relative to threshold-only monitoring, HAPF expands first-bottleneck lead time by about four weeks, improves bottleneck-rank correctness, and supports earlier decisions on retention cleanup, datafile growth, archive handling, and capacity expansion. Database storage forecasting is most useful when it closes the loop between prediction and action. By preserving Oracle-specific control surfaces while reframing them as a multi-layer engineering decision system, the study shows that storage control should be evaluated by horizon accuracy, bottleneck sequencing, and intervention usefulness rather than by single-series fit alone.
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